Wrigley Field, Chicago (Are the Cubs unlucky?)
How unlucky are the Chicago Cubs? Even casual baseball fans know that the Chicago Cubs went a long time between winning World Series. Most Chicago fans probably know that “a long time” means that after a 1908 win, their next one was 108 years later, in 2016. About 60 years into that streak, I remember reading an item in my local newspaper, the Macomb Daily Journal (the Cubs and Cardinals were the two teams that most kids in Macomb followed), which quoted some mathematician who had calculated that the odds against a streak that long were so high that the Cubs must be remarkably unlucky. Even as a teenager, without having had any courses in statistics, I could see flaw in that reasoning. But first, here’s how the calculation works. Right now, there are 30 teams in MLB. One will win the World Series, so that means you have a 1 in 30 chance of winning the World Series this year. That also means that you have a 29 in 30 chance (96.7%) of NOT winning the...